The space industry launched a record number of rockets last year, yet satellite operators face a new bottleneck. The shortage is not simply about launch capacity but about launch diversity.
The FAA licensed 187 launches in fiscal year 2026, up from less than 100 a decade earlier. Despite this growth, many satellite companies wait months or years for a suitable ride because most launches serve similar orbits aboard a small number of frequently used rockets.
"Demand is crazy," said Robert Sproles, chief executive of Exolaunch, a Berlin-based launch services broker that has deployed 912 satellites across 51 separate launch events. "The demand curve is so much steeper than the supply curve."
A rocket bound for the wrong orbit at the wrong time offers little value to a satellite operator. The problem intensifies as missions grow more complex and require custom orbital destinations, schedules, and payload configurations.
Sproles noted that launch diversity has declined since 2016 despite higher capacity. Technology shifts, geopolitics, and pandemic-related supply chain disruptions have concentrated launch capacity among a few highly active providers. SpaceX's Falcon 9 and Rocket Lab's Electron represent opposite ends of the spectrum. Falcon 9 optimizes for large commercial constellations and heavy rideshares, while Electron targets small satellites and CubeSats requiring custom orbital planes.
Rideshare services remain foundational but insufficient for complex missions. Alternatives like shared launches, conceived from the start for multiple customers, and dedicated launches tailored to individual schedules and destinations address this gap.
Exolaunch's first eight launches in 2026 used four different launch vehicles from three continents. Sproles called for multiple launch providers to operate reliably at regular cadence across multiple orbits. "They can do it. We just need them to execute."